Article published in BMJ

Testing and tracing must resume urgently on 24 February, there were nine confirmed cases of Covid-19  int he UK.

BMJ 2020; 368 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1284 (Published 30 March 2020)Cite this as: BMJ 2020;368:m1284

Read – https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1284

COVID-19 is now a pandemic and many of the affected countries face severe shortages of 18 hospital resources. In Brazil, the first case was reported on February 26. As the number of cases 19 grows in the country, there is a concern that the health system may become overwhelmed, 20 resulting in shortages of hospital beds, intensive care unit beds, and mechanical ventilators. The 21 timing of shortage is likely to vary geographically depending on the observed onset and pace of 22 transmission observed, on the availability of resources, and on the actions implemented. Here we 23 consider the daily number of cases reported in municipalities in Brazil to simulate twelve 24 alternative scenarios of the likely timing of shortage, based on parameters consistently reported 25 for China and Italy, on rates of hospital occupancy for other health conditions observed in Brazil 26 in 2019, and on assumptions of allocation of patients in public and private facilities. Results 27 show that hospital services could start to experience shortages of hospital beds, ICU beds, and 28 ventilators in early April, the most critical situation observed for ICU beds. Increasing the 29 allocation of beds for COVID-19 (in lieu of other conditions) or temporarily placing all resources 30 under the administration of the state delays the anticipated start of shortages by a week. This 31 suggests that solutions adopted by the Brazilian government must aim at expanding the available 32 capacity (e.g., makeshift hospitals), and not simply prioritizing the allocation of available 33 resources to COVID-19.

Demand for hospitalization services for COVID-19 patients in Brazil